Groan: Zelezny beats Bolt


Statistician Says Železný WR Better Than Bolt’s
Longtime statistician/author Dale Harder of Castro Valley, California, says that the best men’s world record is in the javelin, not the 100 or 200. His take on the subject:

Jan Zelezny’s JT of 323’1 (98.48m) is actually the best mark of all time based on empirical results. No one else has come within 5% of him. Indeed, multiplying his WR x .95 results in 306’11 (93.56m). The javelin throw is the only event to have just one person higher than the 95% level.

However, to fairly compare most field events with runs (the high jump and pole vault are exceptions which are explained below) you would probably think that you would divide running WRs by .95 to get results to fairly compare with field event marks. But, if you divide 9.58 (Bolt’s 100m WR) by .95 you get 10.08 (rounded off) and roughly 150 men have bettered that mark. So 150 men can run within 5% of the world’s 100m record, but only one man came with 5% of the javelin record. Zelezny’s better but not that much better. Read on for more.

To make comparisons fair, without going into the physics of it, one needs to take the square root of .95 (roughly .975) and use that as the divisor for races. You then should find that dividing 9.58 by .975 is about 9.83, and 4 men have reached that mark --which is rare, but not as rare as Zelezny’s javelin throw. Next, if you divide Bolt’s 19.19 (his 200m WR) by .975 it equals about 19.68, with 6 men reaching that mark. This would indicate that Bolt’s 100 m is actually better than his 200m mark despite the general feeling that Michael Johnson’s old 19.30 record was the mark of the ages.

If one also uses another measure, and that it to compare the ratios of world records to all-time 100 best marks for each event, then the same conclusions are reached. (Unfortunately more space is needed to fully explain all of this.) Those of you who are mathematically or arithmetically inclined may want to do some calculations yourselves. If you do the .95 calculations you should first subtract 1.00 meter from the HJ and PV marks since they are the only two events to be so influenced by the athletes’ centers of gravity; then add the 1.00 meter back on to achieve your .95 level.

I don’t think this is an indication that the Jav WR is so great (its a good one), but more of an indication of how insanely talented the 100m pool is.

I agree. The current crew are amazing and then through pushes Bolt who is just a freak, a bit of an enigma in that he is so tall yet has the quickness of a man a foot shorter.

Haven’t the javelins been changed over the years? Or is Jan’s record with the new style as well?

New style…the old style had Uwe Hohn throwing 5 m more than the second, the only one over 100m…104,95 I think…

How about the womens WR for 100, 200, 400 800. And the mens 400, 800.

A long time since anybody got near them. Confess I have not done the 5% maths but they fit the bill for long lasting.

For those that are mathematically inclined I suspect it is not the gross figure of 5% that matters. Or the square root.

I think it is down to bell curves and standard deviations.

104.80, but either way, a long effing ways!

Uwe Hohn is living in Melbourne coaching Australian recordholder Jarrod Bannister who is on the comeback. Bannister threw 89m with his Aussie coach (Gary ??), then dumped him, then took on big Uwe as mentor and promptly had surgery (shoulder or elbow?) as his technique fell away. Was world No.1 coming into Beijing and finish sixth in the Olympic final. Still good but not good as gold … bit of a Wariner/Hart scenario…:rolleyes:

Btw. last saturday another athlete who sometimes trained in the same facilities in Buenos Aires threw a youth WR:

rgentina’s Toledo improves World Youth best in Javelin

Sixteen year-old Argentinean Braian Toledo, the bronze medallist at the 2009 IAAF World Youth Championships, improved the Javelin (700g) World Youth Best Performance to 84.85 at a meet in Buenos Aires on 13 February. The previous best had been set by Russian Valeriy Iordan in Vladimir on 17 May 2009.

Toledo, born in Marcos Paz on 8 September 1993, some 60km west of Buenos Aires, unleashed the mark on his first attempt, and then he passed the remaining five throws.

“I had felt very good at my latest training sessions, thinking I could reach 80m, but I never imagined I could get that far,” said Toledo after his first competition of 2010.

The athlete coached by Gustavo Osorio also improved the South American U-18 record set by Brazilian Júlio César de Oliveira with 81.16, when he won the Third IAAF World Youth Championships in Sherbrooke, Canada, on 11 July 2003. Toledo’s previous NYR was 79.25m, achieved in Córdoba, Argentina, on 11 October 2009.

In 2009, to top the bronze obtained at the IAAF World Youth Championships, Toledo added the Pan-American Junior title in Trinidad and Tobago, and a silver medal at the South American Junior Championships in Brazil to his collection.

At the Pan-Am Juniors, in Port-of-Spain on 31 July, Toledo had already set the best-ever performance with the 800g implement for a 15 year-old, with 69.84m.

Eduardo Biscayart for the IAAF

He is a beast, arround 1.90 and much much lean muscle. What a coincidence that he’s currently Argentina’s best athlete and doesn’t train nor live at the high performance centre, and I hope he will never do it. Not long ago I was told the star long jumper ended up with a serious fracture in his tibia…

How come nobody has picked up on the colour of his jeans?
for the record I suggest it is a fair call.

This is a cut and paste from an AA release.

–"" “”“Under the guidance of former world record-holder Uwe Hohn, “””""----""""“Bannister is one of Australia’s brightest athletics prospects and is working with Hohn as part of a six-month pilot program commissioned by Athletics Australia to ensure Bannister is coached to the level the national sporting body believes he can achieve.”""""—""""“began working with Hohn in Germany in 2008"”""___""""“Hohn has relocated to Melbourne to work more closely with Bannister and the national sporting organisation.”""""

When I first read the above I assumed it was something new happening, the new bit is the coach is beind relocated to Australia.

Lee Brown was Nordic Australia and he supplied Jarrod with javelins, I am not sure but Lee’s dad Eric had something to do with the coaching. Lee offered to sell me Nordic A, I didn’t take his offer.

Wasn’t it Uwe Hohn the man who threw the jav by the tail or Tom Petrinoff. Anyway the technique was banned, went too far.

Off topic – the jav was redesigned, imagine the 6s drag cars being told they could use parts available only at the dealerships, and could no longer use ethanol. The jav used to break the record was an OTE (Dick Held) and was designed to be thrown in the Atlanta conditions, The Americans are good at this type of thing, at the Americas Cup yacht racing they used to kick everyones butt.

I have no doubt AA are doing what they think best and I would love Jarrod to be the best.

Back to the drags, would you use the driver or the mechanics for the new car.

Too many questions