More details @ MVP Website:
I would like to know the formula they used, but one flaw about all calculations is that they don’t take into account Injuries and that sort of thing, so really it means very little…just posting it as food for thought…
At the end of the 2004 track and field season before the MVP athletes started their active preparation for the 2005 season a couple of us sat down to reflect on the season past and outline our plans for 2005. At that time another method for trying to accurately predict the performances of our athletes was introduced, a statistical forecasting model which inputs prior year performances to predict future results. So we inputted Asafa’s season best results from 2001 to 2004 and the forecast model predicted that his 2005 season best would be 9.76 seconds. If you are reading this web page then you know that he went on to run 9.77 seconds in what ended up being an injury shorten season. So we had some converts to this statistical forecasting model. So at the end of the 2005 season we updated the model with his 9.77 second world record and the model then predicted that for 2006 he would run 9.65 seconds!!!
We then decided to randomly choose another world class 100m runner, and input his season best results for a number of years. Interestingly the model predicted that the other athlete should do a 2005 season best of 9.80 but he “only” did a season best of 9.88 seconds slower than his 2004 season best of 9.85. After inputting his 2005 9.88 the model now predicts that he should run a 2006 season best of 9.79 seconds.
Time will reveal.
Year Asafa Powell 100m season best
2005 forecast 9.76
2005 actual 9.77
2006 forecast 9.65
Random World Class Athlete 100m SB (Gatlin)
2005 forecast 9.80
2005 actual 9.88
2006 forecast 9.79
P.S. Random athlete, lol, why didn’t they just put Justin Gatli?, Its so obvious…