Prediction: WC 100

I think AA have to wake up and realise that pushing Athletes to run ‘A’ Qualifiers in late March early April is not the way to go about things.
Too many athletes - especially the Canberra based Athletes - came out guns blazing and can’t even match the times they were running in December.

Our athletes are running as fast as they ever have. However they can’t manage to back their domestic times up overseas. A close inspection will reveal that our international performances started to slide down hill slightly with the introduction of domestic GP’s and took a nose dive when AA started to really emphasize them. On top of this the selection process is a joke. First 3 across the line is, as Kieth Connor has put it, an elegant system, however not five months away from the target competition and especially not in a relatively weak country as we are (Although with our talent I don’t see why we should be).

Phew … glad thats out.

I’m not sure what the answer is. Why can’t the qualifying period (outdor for you) be treated the same as indoor comps in the Northern Hemisphere with a training break to the northern summer schedule. Can anyone track the comp schedule for patrick to show how long was spent in the prep phase. Anyone suspect that he’s been in a prep phase for some time and has been using the meets for funding?

PJ is one of those athletes who competes alot during the australian domestic season. He does all the grand prix events and usually runs the 100/200 double. This means he has alot of races from December through to August with maybe June/July with no races. His 9.93 came on the back of a few consecutive races and he hadnt raced for a few months prior to his 10.44. But then again, 10.44 is pretty awsome in races where 10.15 was the best run of the day, so with the right track and conditions, he’s still in 10 flat form, which is way better than any other aussie going around and way more consistent that PJ has ever been.

I really don’t think there are any excuses for the Australian team.

After all, many Australian sprinters have made the final of the WC and OG under similar timetables. Norman 200m (1968), Mitchell 400m (76 and 80), Naracott 100m (83), Garner 400m (91), Clark 400m (84, 88), Capiobianco 200m (93). And what about Lauren Hewitt. She ran 22.53 in the 1999 WC under a similar system.

Further, take the example of Ben Johnson. In 1987, when focusing on speed (60m) around January in the buildup to the indoor WCS, Johnson went to Perth and still ran a windy 9.7h. With Johnson posessing 10.10 sec speed, he should have been able to run a qualifying time (at least B qualifying standard), and at least run first or second without the need to peak. In any case, his fastest legal times were after the Australian season, which suggests that they may have miscalculated the build-up to Paris completely having already qualified.

Perhaps the work Johnson thinks was a heavy load was appropriate to peak. As Dazed suggested, even Ben Johnson would have found it hard to run sub-10.00 in a heavy load period, and he is the fastest man in history.

However, I don’t buy that. Good athletes, through the advice and expertise of their coaches, should always be in control of their circumstances (barring injury) as the timetable is known long before the event they are supposed to peak for. As i have indicated, the Australian system, despite all of its difficulties, did not prevent many Australians from making the finals of various WC and OG sprints since 1983. In fact, Australia has had 16 finalists.

Anyway, I hope the fears about Johnson are unwarranted, and Johnson comes out and runs 10.00 again.

Let’s hold judgement on Patrick, till he has a chance to show in Paris.

I actually think they have done an OK job structuring the 2004 season and lead up to Athens. Nationals is in last week of February. That gives us a similar peaking cycle to Northern Hemisphere except that ours is outdoors, which is less stressul on the body anyway :slight_smile:

Athens is 20-29/August. That’s a full 6 months after Nationals.

I think as of right now, Maurice Greene is still the man to beat when he get’s to Paris. Maurice always seems to get better as the rounds go on. He has faced and beaten every challenge at major championships for how long now? No, he hasn’t been the guy from '99, but who has been running that fast this year? He’s run faster than just about everyone else in the world this year. I think he should have run more indoor races cause every time I’ve seen him, except for that 9.94, he’s been behind at 60m, and lost the race. I hope he’s been working on his start. But once they line up for the final, I think he’ll be looking more like his old self than he has earlier this year.

Greene is an awsome sprinter … the best ever, and he has been unstopable through to when he took it a bit easier in 2002. He 2001 final run in the worlds was probably the best ever as without the injury 9.7 low was on the cards. He will also probably be the man in 2004 and as much as I would love to see him run awsome in Paris, my question remains as to how someone can get up and run sub 10’s without the racing. He trains with John Drummond so I guess he will always know where he is speed wise, but actual racing, especially within the last 2 months of a major would be of paramount importance I would have thought, but as was said earlier, he has won being the underdog, won being the favorite, won injured, so maybe now he wants to win without the need to enter any other races. At the end of his career, Michael Johnson said he only needed around 4 races to be ready, maybe Greene feels similar to that now …

I think that’s pretty good that he hasn’t raced so much this year and he still has the 2nd best time this year. I’ve got all the 100m rounds from the 99 WC’s and Sydney on tape. And every time I watch them I start to believe in Mo again. Watching how he get’s better in every round. Every race he’s run this was just 1 race, not a final with several rounds before it. How many of the guys who’ve beaten Greene this year have proven they could put down 9.9’s in the quarterfinal’s, semi’s, and the final’s? None, if anyone should feel the pressure it’s Tim Montgomery, last year he runs a “World Record”, this year he might not even make the final at the WC’s.

im hoping your gonna do us all the big favour of ripping those videos onto ur computer and posting them!! i for one would love to watch mo greene go through his paces in the 100, again, and again, and again…

do it bro do it!!

p.s: if those are ur 2004 goals, what are ur goals for this year?

Will anyone break 10s at the WC’s? What about Darrell Brown? Do u guys think he’ll break the WJR?