How would I know if my theory was true at the time??? The results are already there, along with the method. The results are recorded right away- not 25 yrs later (though it seems that way at some of the meets around here!)
The why in your example is speculation by me that must be left to scientists to look into.
My objection here is that scientists have a tendency to reject things that are observed to work because proof is absent at the time.
I think the way to look at it is to accept that something is working and try to figure out how that might be. ATP was used with race horses and dogs with observed success before and human athletes tried it, which rules out the placebo effect from the outset.
Maybe what you’re saying is that the scientific method is primarily measurement tools. That’s reasonable enough. Of course that tells us what’s going on right away.
My interpretation of the scientific method is the proof of the theory itself, which might take years to validate. This is also important for those who follow but less so for those who find something that works and would like to share it.
If my interpretation of the scientific method is a marketing tool for the site, I don’t need to wait 25 yrs to know that you’re here for free to debate it.
As for target times, they are a combination of previous annual progressions and current annual progress (less steep than prev yrs) and current athlete readiness. For example, if an athlete is scheduled for a particular SE session and the situation suggests that improvement is not in the cards, the session is postponed and a replacement workout is substituted, usually sub-maximal. Now readiness can be measured to a point by Omega Wave etc, BUT if you’re working at the world record levels, the data base upon which norms are based will not always apply. likewise the final taper data of the OW cannot set the conditions for the ultimate race but it CAN regularize the conditions noted on the machine when everything was right based on results. (I hope what I’m trying to say about this makes sense)