The problem comes in when we try to forsee what’s possible versus what people usually get, especially when execution is less than perfect- something even Bolt brought up today.
We already know what everyone’s done so far.
i stand by my prediction of sub 19 as possible this year.
Just wait Charlie, he will. The first thing Usain said to Spearmon was “I’M TIRED. I’M SOOO TIRED”.
Maurice green
9.79 - 19.86 double his best 100m = 19.58 add 0.28
Ato boldon Double his best 100m = 9.885
19.77 – 9.86
shown crawford Double his best 100m = 19.76 add 0.12
19.79 – 9.88
tyson gay 19.58 double his best 100m = 19.42 then add 0.16
9.71
carl lewis double his best 100m = 19.72 then add 0.03
19.75 – 9.86
michael johnon double his best 100m = 20.12 – 0.8
19.32 – 10.09
wallace spearmon double his best 100m = 19.92 then take away 0.27
19.65 – 9.96
xavier carter double his best 100m = 20s then take away 0.37
19.63 – 10.00
Here are just a few examples of some athletes with 200 and 100m times.
MJ never really ran a 100m - his time is from 1994.
Wallace and Xavier - 0.27 and 0.37 Faster than doubled 100m are really the only indicators that one can run faster than doubled 100m times. And Maurice had the opposite factor!
Ato, Carl and Usain are almost smack dead on double.
If one had to predict an athletes 200m time, i would do the maths on the Individual - Otherwise, using the guys up above, we get a time ranging from
19.44 (maurices range)
to
18.36 (MJ’s Range)
or 19.16 (Carl n Ato n Usain current)
or 19.28 (crawford n gay)
or 18.76 (xavier)
or 18.89 (wallace) - Wallace is the only guy who’s MATH even comes close to the 0.24 formula. Xavier is almost but thats it.
Then like some have said, are xavier and wallace known to run the 100m as aften as the 200m???
The more one puts into the 100m, the more the difference becomes closer to simply Doubling 100m??
Like I said its just a quick and dirty prediction based on less than ideal data that I put together for a little bit of fun. The thing to keep in mind about statistical models, is that they are only as good as the assumptions made. Also the dependent variable, in this case 200m time, is only an expected value not a limit. I’m sure that if I put in a prediction interval, the range of times, (either side of the predicted value) it is likely to encompass would be wider than I would like to make an accurate forecast.
I don’t discount your sub 19 prediction, but then again I also wouldn’t discount an improvement in his 100m. With sufficient rest, this week must have provided some serious training stimulus.
The big question now is, where does bolt go from here? Other than breaking the 19 and 9.5 second barriers and continuing to lower his own WR each year and moving towards the frontier of post race clebrations, he has achieved almost everything on offer to him and the 100m and 200m. Will Bolt get bored and move up any time soon?
Bolt was relatively fresh in Berlin for the 100 but not for the 200.
If Boldwarrior is right, Bolt won’t go under 19 till he breaks the 100 significantly. If I’m right, he will. We’ll have to wait and see.
Frank Fredericks double his best 100m = 19.72 then take away 0.04
19.68 9.86
walter dix double his best 100m = 19.82 then take away 0.13
19.69 – 9.91
michael marsh double his best 100m = 19.86 then take away 0.13
19.73 - 9.93
All Bolt needs now is 1x200m at a grand prix meet with 1.5-1.9 tail wind and being really inspired to run flat out. Not only he would go sub 19 he would run in 18.65-18.85 range.
That’s assuming the rounds only have a negative effect on performance. No doubt they have a negative net affect, but there may also be positives that mean it’s not as pronounced as it otherwise may be.
It worth noting the last 5 WRs have been run under championship conditions with the last 3 the athlete has doubled.
So you can see him improving half a second more and beating Tyson by 10m?hmm
Round Wind RT t200m t100m Diff. t100-200m t150m t0-50m t50-100m t100-150m t150-200m
Bolt Usain JAM Fi -0,3 0,133 19,19 9,92 -0,65 9,27 14,44 5,60 4,32 4,52 4,75
Dazed
Without a doubt, I can.
According to the above posted splits Bolt did 9.92 (being tired from the rounds mind you) and 14.44.
If we remember that he did 14.35 in Manchester this is giving us an indication that Bolt could go faster then 14.44 or 14.35 when in peak condition. I reckon he can go 14.10-14.15 over 150m. If so and with 1.5-1.9 m/s tail wind deduct another .20-.30 to his time. And if he runs the first 100m in 9.85 (which he can easy) we will be looking at substantial sub 19 with or without Gay behind him. Gay can not get close to Bolt in the 200m
As I said, in peak form, one race only, ideal weather conditions and especially if Gay is in the race, Bolt will fly.
In respect to distance between Gay and Bolt, if Gay was to run his best 200m I think he can get down to 19.35-19.40 (chasing Bolt) - so perhaps it would give Bolt 6-7-8m winning margin.
Negatives
- 8th race
- head wind
- did not specifically train for the 200m
- no Gay in the race
- perhaps the track to certain degree
Turn this into;
- 1 race only
- 1.5-1.9m/s tail wind
- train for the 200m as well
- Gay in it
- fast track
- good financial incentive
RESULT - an amazing time!
BBC news;
Bolt set a time of 19.19 seconds to demolish the previous record of 19.30 he set in winning Olympic gold last summer in Beijing.
The 22-year-old finished well clear of the field, with silver medallist Alonso Edward finishing in 19.81.
Wallace Spearmon of the United States took bronze.
Bolt, who also smashed the 100m record in Berlin on Sunday, is now the first man to hold the 100 and 200m world and Olympic titles at the same time.
And, the first ever to break WRs in the 100m and the 200m events in the two consecutive championships. I can not think of it right now but who was the last to hold WR in those two events at the same time? Plus, the fastest ever over 150m.
So, I guess 300m and 400m WR may be next (or a few years away) on his agenda.
Talking about GOAT - he is GOAT.
Wow, amazing…he did that with a headwind…He’s a freak of nature. It was expected of him, but he did it.
He broke records in the rain and made a 9.71 look easy.
He made 19.5 look easy in rain.
Yes, we wanted to see a sub19 but doing this into a headwind is amazing.
I think it’s a hell of a lot harder to run 100m around a curve than it is on the straight. I also think giving Bolt an outer lane will help lower his times. The reason I think this is he knows he will win, he’s so much faster than everyone anyway that he isn’t using people he can see to judge his pace, and this minimizes the effects of the curve.
In ‘The Lore of Running’ by Tim Noakes you’ll find various tables which have used different statistical methods(!) to predict the progression of performances over time and interestingly…ultimate performances for 100m to marathon. If my memory serves me well, the ultimate performance prediction for 400m was 39secs
Vabo, Mills is Usain’s coach from late 2004.
ops!
and why do press say mills was his coach after those bad years (many injuries)?
I’m sorry, but I just can’t see it. Not without a significant improvement in speed.
I don’t see all those as being negatives, you said it your self, Gay isn’t able to touch him, so I don’t see how he would make a difference, I don’t think training for the 100m and 200m has made that much of a difference and the track has turned out a plethora of PB’s, NR’s and SB’s across multiple events, regardless of what was thought of it pre-champs.
As has already been pointed out, the 150m in Manchester was on a 150m straight. Most estimates I have heard put the cost of the bend at roughly .3 over 100m. This would put Bolts curve at 9.88 based on the 100 - not that different to the 9.92 reported by the IAAF biomech team. His second 100 was 93.4% of his first; MJ’s was 90.9%, which would give Bolt with a 9.88 bend an 18.99. If Bolt were to match MJ’s speed maintenance, he would have to run a 9.77 (:.~9.47 for the 100m straight) on the bend (Asafa’s 100m WR only a couple of years ago), followed by an 8.88 (Fastest recorded relay split other than himself and Asafa, 3/10ths faster than MJ and a .44 second improvement on his own).
Regardless of the negative factors, I just don’t see him going near 18.6X.
BTW, I didn’t put 2 and 2 together before, but Jim Bradley owns the Jim Bradley speed-ball company, no wonder he’s keen on them for athletes!
I put the human limit in all sprints at .1 of a second - at least until the start rules change.
BTW, I didn’t put 2 and 2 together before, but Jim Bradley owns the Jim Bradley speed-ball company, no wonder he’s keen on them for athletes!
Exactly!
As for Bolt, not many people believed he could run 19.19 or 9.58. Even if you asked MJ he would have said (and he did say) that Bolt would not break the record again.
I respect your opinion but Bolt will prove soon enough that sub 19 is possible. We may speculate about what ifs etc. I reckon let’s just wait and see. I have been patiently waiting for 4 years to see first sub 19. Only .19 away, now!