I would think it’s almost certain the winner will come from a mark less than 8.0m.
The only runners beyond 8.0m with a chance are Andrew Steele (8.25) who was 2nd at Keilor off 7.50m; David Tinney off 10.0m who has featured in most of the major lead up Gifts such as Bendigo & Keilor; and Cam Dunbar who was 2nd at Burramine off 9.25m and now has 10.00m.
The field was given a blanket lift of 0.50m to accommodate Josh Ross. Where an athlete has run regularly (within reason) he has been granted another 0.25m.
Some of the marks for our elite athltes such as Sean Wroe, Joel Milburn & Tristan Thomas are very generous and if in 10.6/21.2 shape will be very hard to run down.
My top ten (today! 
) is:
Keith Sheehy 3.25
Sean Wroe 4.50
Joel Milburn 6.25
Tristan Thomas 6.50
Tom Burbridge 7.25
Kevin Brittain 7.50
Matthew Hargreaves 7.75
Andrew Steele 8.25
David Tinney 10.0
Cam Dunbar 10.0
This will change over the next 10 days as more info comes to light as info sneaks out about some of the smokies. 
btw, an interesting statistic told to me last night is that of the 8 Stawell Gifts, the current VAL handicapper, Terry O’Donnell has handicapped, only one winner has come from a mark more than 7.25m.
Thses are the Stawell Gifts winners, TO’D has handicapped:
1984 Paul Singleton 5.00m
1985 Paul Young 10.75m
1986 Glenn Chapman 7.00m
2004 Jason Hunte 4.25m
2005 Joshua Ross 0.00m (Scratch)
2006 Adrian Mott 7.25m
2007 Nathan Allen 5.25m
2008 Sam Jamieson 6.00m
So the odds are it will come from less than 8.0m, unless there’s another rascal like that 1985 winner 
out there hiding somewhere, ready to pounce…