Backmarkers never win anyway- they always get beat by some guy with a 20m head start.
If you are in 10.10-10.20 shape you have a chance to win as a backmarker. (see Josh Ross). To win, Asafa would only need to be capable of running 120m on grass (very slightly uphill) in under 12s. The maximum headstart is 10m, but it seems to be mainly 10.50-10.70 sprinters running off a 5-7m mark that win.
Yep I am goiing to be there, hoping my little kiwi can so some further damage against the aus men, is it being held in nswis rooms at the track?
That should be a good experience for him, will be interesting to see how he goes.
Are you or someone else who attends able to provide a summary of Francis’ talk?
yep sure I’ll take notes and post it when i get a chance
you got rep points for simply saying you would 
If the marks were left as they currently are and Asafa Powell was placed on scratch - he would win the Stawell Gift.
Bola Lawal (off 0.25m) was 3rd in (arguably) Victoria’s second biggest race at the weekend - the Keilor Gift. He was less than 2m away.
Bola’s PB is 10.29 from several weeks ago, but at the moment I reckon he’s around 10.4 shape.
Powell would give Bola 2m start and beat him comfortably.
Had Powell run at Keilor it would have been all over at the half way mark. Asafa would have smashed them.
The handicaps have been tightened up over the years (10m limit) allowing backmarkers to be more competitive. The problem is most of the backmarkers don’t focus on Stawell so are rarely in best shape when they turn up. Whereas those who have been ‘waiting’ for it are generally in the best shape of their lives.
Josh Ross won off scratch in 2005 - so it can be done.
If Powell turned up in 9.7 shape he would win as around 12.00 now days is what it takes. That’s based on current handicaps.
BUT…if Powell was to enter, the handicapper would probably lift the field to ensure he didn’t just walk away with it. Therein lies one small problem of lifting an athlete (say a runner in 10.6 shape but has yet to reveal it) who’s waiting for it up to say 9m.
Therein lies one small problem of lifting an athlete (say a runner in 10.6 shape but has yet to reveal it) who’s waiting for it up to say 9m.
That’s what has happened in the race you have mentioned in your reply. The winner of that gift had kept a low profile for a couple of years, got a good mark, and was in a brilliant shape…and he walked away with $5K. Good on him! I have a big problem not with athletes but with the officials who decide on handicap. Therefore, not a big fan of pro running. But AP would be in a good position to walk away with $40K …
45.94!!!
Thats a huge PB isn’t it?
What happened to Milburn? 46.51 is nowhere near what he should be capable of.
His former pb was 47.17, or something in that range… I never thought he was going to break 46 sec…
wow, it’s only 0.4 slower than bolt’s last race
Wonder if he followed Asafa out or ran his own race?
Apparently Asafa came from behind in the last 100m. His first 100m has been reported as a mere 11.65. Also, I believe Milburn was a couple of lanes outside Asafa, so I don’t think he would have seen him until the home straight.
That might explain Asafa’s improvement. Last year he flew out and died.
The video is now on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd_wxgdgFlY
Amazing how far behind Asafa was at 200m. He ran his last 90m in about 10.7s. I’m getting about 12.3s for Milburn’s last 90 and 13.5 for his last 100m.
I have been told that Milburn has had and still has the after effect of a heavy cold. Not sure if it is true, but my be true after his time.
I must admit I am very impressed with AP run, espec. the last 120m. Well done!
Athletics NSW - Organization License
Sydney Track Classic - 28/02/2009
Sydney Olympic Park Athletics Centre
Event 25 Men 400 metre
Name Year Team Finals Points
=======================================================================
Finals
1 Wroe, Sean VIS 45.28
2 Carter, Xavier USA 45.75
3 Mulcahy, Kurt AIS 45.84
4 Powell, Asafa JAM 45.94
5 Steffensen, John WA 45.98
6 Hill, Clinton NSWIS 46.33
7 Milburn, Joel NSWIS 46.51
8 Ayre, Sanjay JAM 47.02
9 Louis, Wilan JAM 47.10