If the marks were left as they currently are and Asafa Powell was placed on scratch - he would win the Stawell Gift.
Bola Lawal (off 0.25m) was 3rd in (arguably) Victoria’s second biggest race at the weekend - the Keilor Gift. He was less than 2m away.
Bola’s PB is 10.29 from several weeks ago, but at the moment I reckon he’s around 10.4 shape.
Powell would give Bola 2m start and beat him comfortably.
Had Powell run at Keilor it would have been all over at the half way mark. Asafa would have smashed them.
The handicaps have been tightened up over the years (10m limit) allowing backmarkers to be more competitive. The problem is most of the backmarkers don’t focus on Stawell so are rarely in best shape when they turn up. Whereas those who have been ‘waiting’ for it are generally in the best shape of their lives.
Josh Ross won off scratch in 2005 - so it can be done.
If Powell turned up in 9.7 shape he would win as around 12.00 now days is what it takes. That’s based on current handicaps.
BUT…if Powell was to enter, the handicapper would probably lift the field to ensure he didn’t just walk away with it. Therein lies one small problem of lifting an athlete (say a runner in 10.6 shape but has yet to reveal it) who’s waiting for it up to say 9m.