It would be interesting to see this modelled based on real data. I would think that there is a high level of bias in this equation due to a lack of 200’s by top performers in the 400. For instance, this does not seem to apply to quarter milers who were outlying 200m guys such as Tommy Smith or Michael Johnson. Just from a casual view point, I also imagine that there would be a rather high statistical dispersion around this result (that is once adjusted for bias), for every MJ and Tommy that doesn’t meet expectations there is a Jeremy or Butch that exceeds them.