WR Limits: 9.29, 18.63!

December 21 2006 at 08:13PM

By Roy Kammerer

Berlin - The world record in the 100m sprint can be lowered by another half-second before man reaches his limits, according to an expert in the field of extreme values.

The men will hit a wall when Asafa Powell’s current record of 9.77 seconds mark is reduced to 9.29, a study by Professor John Einmahl of Germany’s Tilberg university predicted Thursday.

The Dutch mathematician studied world records in 14 disciplines, feeding the best marks of 1 546 male and 1 024 female athletes into a computer.

Male marathoners may not like the findings - it concluded Paul Tergat’s record of 2:04:55 can only be bettered by 49 seconds.

“For a lot of athletes it is probably depressing when they are confronted with our extreme values,” Einmahl told the German news agency dpa. “But this is a very serious study - the extreme theory as a part of mathematics and statistics is an accepted science.”

Einmahl’s past studies include extreme stock market prices, the height needed in dams to control huge floods and a study funded by the insurance field over the highest possible damage claims.

Women marathoners have plenty of room to shatter Paula Radcliffe’s current marathon mark of 2:15.25. They can be expected to lower it by 8:50.

Michael Johnson’s 200 record of 19.32 could drop to 18.63, while athletes can lower Liu Xiang’s 110-meter hurdle mark of 12.88 by a half second.

Einmahl acknowledged there is room for extraordinary performances that will turn his results upside down. He said his field doesn’t recognize the impossible, but accepts the unbelievable.

“Who would have thought Bob Beamon would jump 8.90m on October 18, 1968?” he said.

Beamon never again came close to his long jump record, set in the high altitude of Mexico City. It shattered the old record by 55cm (21 3/4 inches) and stood for 23 years. - Sapa-AP

My god, i cannot believe that the marathon is like 2.04.55… Damn… Thats smokin.

Big mistake, never put permenant limits on anything!!!

Predicting performances based on maths and progressions is one thing. Getting the human body to produce such fanciful marks, quite another. I don’t see those sprint times ever being achieved, no matter what advances are made in track and shoe technology - unless the iaaf allows rockets

moreover, I bet marathon time can be lowered by1 minute in the next 5 years, whereas 100m maybe 5 tenths…they have nothing to do…those statisticians,…

This is very interesting, especially the final comment on Bob Beamon. I wonder how many people said that Beamon’s record will never be broken, “unless the iaaf allows rockets” :slight_smile:

Carl Lewis jumped further from point of take-off to landing in a foul jump 1985 (i think) US nats in Indianapolis. Beamon himself regularly was seen to have jumped over 28ft off his “wrong” foot at training in college before Mexico.
It was the biggest shock performance among many in Mexico, but by the time Lutz Dombrowski jumped 28ft plus in Moscow 1980 i think most people realised it was just a matter of time.

But are you seriously suggesting someone is going to run 100 in 9.2? Not while they’re only running on the two legs god gave them.

Didn’t Beamon fail to jump over 27’ ever again after his 8.90m?

Beamon going WR off his wrong foot in practice? Carl jumping 30’ fouling :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: Heard the same thing about Pedroso.

Carl sure didn’t jump 30’ when he was less than 1cm from fouling with an illegal tailwind when Powell terminated him.

but only 2:04 low in the marathon. right…

my calculations brought me 2 9,33s so i think 9,29 is probable, i also believe a sub 19,00s is possible u would just need super speed endurance.

first 100= 10,00 + second 100= 8,9= 18,90

Well, I can only say I saw it with my own eyes in Indianapolis in 85. It was impressive. I was there in Tokyo too and both Powell and Lewis were magnificent in battle - probably the greatest contest in any event in the history of the sport.
And there was a javelin thrower on the university team with Beamon who has told me he (Beamon) regular jumped 28ft in training, often off his wrong foot. What he did after Mexico City was not in dispute and also irrelevant.
Another friend told me only yesterday that when he (my friend) was at UTEP, the coaches talked about how someone put 25 cents on top of the basketball backboard and Beamon grabbed the money. That’s some jumping ability.

Why did Lewis jump 30’ in Indy then only jump 29’ once the rest of his life? I guess the same reason that Beamon couldn’t come close to his own mark :slight_smile: Also looks like Lutz never came close to his 1980 mark again either. What’s with these long jumpers :confused:

Maybe his wrong foot should be his right foot.

Lewis foul jump was in 1982 and was well documented in the press and now in history books. His best jump of the serie was a then-low altitude WR 8.76m.
History chat :

Same story about his 19.75 for 200m in 1983 raising arms in the air 20m before the line, why did he never broke than WR ?

Bob Beamon switched to professional circuit after Mexico but was no longer the same man and motivation and media interest, etc…

Lutz Dombrowsky best legal competitions : 8.54 (1980), 8.50 (1984), 8.45 (1980), 8.36 (1984), 8.31 (1979), 8.30 (1982)… Pretty consistent over several years…

Thanks for the info pj. I commented on Lutz based on the IAAF all time list. I saw him once at 8.54m then never again (bottom of list is 8.34).

That was 1982 wasn’t it? My understanding was that there was no mark in the plasticine but the official claimed he saw his foot over the board- a harsh call. There was many witnesses who said it was over 30ft

That’s exactly the way I read of it as well. I believe the description was used in Sports Illus. and/or Track and Field News.
The official claimed that the front of his shoe “broke the vertical plane” (or something similar) of the plasticine even though that point did not constitute a foul.

OK, my bad. 85 Indy was when Willie Banks did his wr. I get it mixed up. For sure I wasn’t present in 82.

In any case, the point was that some of these guys were phenomenal jumpers and Beamon’s mark did not seem impossible to reach by the time Lewis came on the scene. And even the guy from Armenia (i think) was getting out there.

But 9.2 in the 100? Nup, can’t see it ever happening. Ben was the most complete 100m performer I’ve seen. Even if you calculate BJ capable of 9.6sec, I cannot see anyone whipping him by three metres. Not on this planet anyway.

After Bob Beamon did this . . .

he broke down with emotion, which may explain why he was never primed to long jump as far (or further) ever again.


Candace Parker, 6ft 4in, dunks for Tennessee this week. She made two dunks in the game.